(συνέντευξη στον Peter Taberner)
1. What do you think of the
decision by Alexis Tsipras to call an election, how does this reconcile with
his acceptance of the recent bail out conditions?
Surely, another election
is not for the benefit of the economy, as political stability and electoral
regularity seem to be major issues for Greece during the crisis era.
In the 20th
of September, Greeks will vote for their government for the fifth time since mid
2009.
This is translated
into a national election every 15 months.
However, in terms
of micro politics, the Prime minister faced serious problems inside his party
after his significant turn and acceptance of the third support program with the
parliamentary votes of the opposition parties.
This broad
political support on the new program, which was the largest in parliamentary
terms since the beginning of the crisis, was not depicted in governmental
changes that could forward the implementation of structural reforms and the
recovery of the economy.
Politics has
overcome economics one more time.
And now the people
have to decide for a new government that will implement the third adjustment program.
2. Do you think that Syriza can win the election which
looks like being called for 20 September?
According to the
recent polls, the political landscape seems to have changed after the government’s
agreement with our partners on the third program, as the diachronic rhetoric of
the two coalition government parties was far away of such a result.
So, even though
after the referendum the Prime minister and the SYRIZA party were the major
actors, nowadays a SYRIZA win does not seem to be such an easy task.
A new party from
the left side of SYRIZA is created, while a significant number of people will
decide during the election campaign.
It will be nonetheless
an interesting campaign, during which Alexis Tsipras will try to explain his
new plan after his U-turn that lead to an agreement for a third program, while his
main opponent, the center-right party ‘New Democracy’ will try to
convince people
for their more liberal and reformative program.
Taking also into
account the large number of parties that present a potential to reach the
threshold of 3% and to enter to the new parliament, makes it all the more difficult
for someone, for the time being, to predict the winner of these elections as
well as the composition of the new parliament.
3. How will the economy be affected by the election
call in the short and medium term?
The economic activity, especially after the
referendum call and the introduction of capital controls in the banking sector,
has been seriously harmed, while the public finances are quite distressed
during the last months.
According to the European Commission, Greece in
2015 will return in negative signs of growth and primary fiscal balance will
also be negative.
The agreement of the third program, even though
it included difficult fiscal measures, contributed positively to the citizens’
and enterprises’ expectations of a gradual return to a business as usual
environment.
However, the political developments halt these
expectations and the some kind of anxiety returned.
Thus, the result of the September elections
and, especially, the ability to have a new four-year government is crucial in
order to gradually establish a stable environment that would allow deposits to
return to the banking system, enterprises to plan their business activities,
investments to take place, international transactions to be fully implemented
etc.
So, the sooner the situation is stabilized the
better will be the prospects of the economy.
