(συνέντευξη στο Pekka Lahteenmaki)
1. Where did the austerity go
wrong?
The fiscal adjustment program should have taken
seriously into account the peculiarities of Greece, which is a state-led market
economy. The adjustment has different results in a case like Greece than in a
case of a liberal economy, or even of a coordinated market economy. One size
does not fit all. That’s why the adjustment packages led to deeper than
expected recession. It is the famous “multipliers” issue. In parallel, the initial
adjustment was based more on tax revenues –by increasing rates and not dealing
with tax evasion– and not on public expenditures. Private sector was mostly
harmed and unemployment increased extremely. Further recessionary pressures
were created. The deeper the recession, the larger was the needed effort to
achieve the fiscal targets, in a very short period of time and without a growth
package to countervail recession. It was a vicious cycle that should have been
predicted during the planning of the first program in 2010.
2. What is
the outlook of Greek economy, if this acute crisis is solved, also if there is
an agreement with the creditors?
Undoubtedly, the Greek society achieved a huge
fiscal adjustment. In terms of cyclically adjusted effort it is the largest in
Europe. Now, public finances are stabilized and primary surplus was achieved in
2013 and 2014. Last year the economy returned to positive sign of growth after
a six-year recession, while unemployment dropped by 2 percentage points.
However, unemployment is still extremely high, at 25.7% last January, while
poverty is increased. So, Greece needs a new balance between fiscal
consolidation and growth-oriented policies in order to create a friendly
environment for the further implementation of structural reforms that would
lead the economy to a path of sustainable growth. An agreement on that with our
partners will help us move faster towards that direction.
3. Where will the growth come
from?
The growth will come from the continuation of
Greece’s effort to change its economic model. Particularly, to shift it from a
mainly consumption-oriented economy to an economy focused on the supply-side
and on exports. So, it is crucial to stick on more structural reforms considering
the function of the market, but also that of the state. In order, however, to
achieve that we must, firstly, have a stable economic environment to work and
invest on.
4. Does Greece need third
bailout package? Why should countries like Finland accept it?
According to the Eurogroup press release of the 20th
of February, the current extension of the support scheme would also bridge the
time for discussions on a possible follow-up arrangement between the Eurogroup,
the institutions and Greece. So, a support scheme is possible as long as Greece
cannot return for funding to the international capital markets. In any case
this will be a joint Euro area decision, based on the constructive solidarity
that has characterized the European integration process and has secured the
sustainability of the Euro project. A positive sum project for all the
member-states.
5. Are there signs that Greece
(ordinary citizens/politicians) has learned from the crisis?
Surely, many interesting lessons have derived from
the crisis and the effort that the society has made during the last five years
for both ordinary citizens and politicians. Words like stable public finances,
efficiency, competitiveness and primary surplus are commonly used in the public
debate. However, for the time being, the huge unemployment and poverty do not
allow these lessons to be clearly depicted in the citizens’ stance. So, it is
crucial firstly to deal with these strong social problems and then build on the
lessons of the crisis.
(δημοσιεύθηκε στο περιοδικό Talouselama και είναι διαθέσιμο εδώ)
